President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized NATO, arguing that European allies do not contribute enough to defense spending while the United States bears a disproportionate financial burden. He warned that the U.S. under his administration would not defend member countries that failed to meet the 2% goal of their GDP on security.

During his first term, Trump even questioned the alliance’s relevance and threatened to withdraw the U.S. from NATO, casting doubts on the merits of Article 5 for the U.S.

At the same time, Trump bragged about his close ties with dictators and particularly expressed his admiration for Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

Trump and Stoltenberg arguing during the NATO summit in 2018. Credit: AntaraNews

Some of Trump’s threats are part of his bully & offer method to force the other side to accept his terms – a strategy he employs in real estate business negotiations – but others stem from his capricious and unpredictable nature. However, some threats go through, such as the termination of military assistance for Ukraine or the deportation of immigrants.

So, what if Trump indeed pulls the U.S. out of NATO?

Analyzing the statements and comments from NATO officials, and using three most powerful AI chatbots, NewsCafe has explored the possible developments within the alliance and the reactions of rival nations and enemies.

There could be two scenarios in the eventual U.S. withdrawal from the bloc, both with profound consequences affecting America’s geopolitical influence, European security, and global stability.

Scenario 1: Abrupt withdrawal without alternative agreements

The Trump administration could unilaterally announce the withdrawal, citing financial inefficiency and the need to prioritize domestic interests. The U.S. could suspend military commitments in Europe, close bases, and reduce its participation in joint exercises.

The move would shock the allies while NATO, left without its strongest military power, would face an existential crisis. In such case, however, two things can happen: the remaining members choose to dismantle NATO and form an alternative organization or keep NATO without Americans.

The E.U. could attempt to form a new defense alliance, but European militaries lack the capacity to replace U.S. forces quickly. Countries like Germany and France might increase defense budgets, but political disagreements could slow progress.

The United Kingdom could align more closely with the U.S. outside of NATO, while France and Germany might pivot towards an EU-led defense strategy.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth taking questions during a NATO meeting in 2024. Credit: Reuters

Scenario 2: Gradual withdrawal with bilateral defense arrangements

Instead of a sudden exit, the U.S. might reduce its commitment over time, pushing European allies to assume more responsibility. This approach would fragment NATO but still might prevent total collapse.

Washington could establish separate bilateral defense agreements with key allies like the United Kingdom, Türkiye or Poland. Some security deals may be offered to the Baltics and Romania due to their strategic positioning in Europe.

If the U.S. leaves, European nations (especially Germany and France) might attempt to strengthen their collective defense. The E.U. could accelerate efforts to create its own military force, but it would take years to reach NATO’s current capability.

In both scenarios, Russia and China would exploit the alliance's weakness, increasing pressure on Eastern Europe. A weakened NATO could push Moscow and Beijing into a more strategic partnership, counterbalancing the West.

With the U.S. less focused on Europe, Russia might attempt to destabilize the Baltic nations and/or Moldova while China might capitalize on a distracted West to expand its influence in Asia, potentially provoking Taiwan.

Anticipated impacts in Europe