The United States was still the largest economy on Earth last year, but until the turn of mid-century China will take the lead for the next 25 years or so, and India will be the second.
A report by Goldman Sachs, an international bank based in the U.S., says that in 2075 Asian nations will dominate a shortlist of 15 largest economies as the balance of global economic power is projected to shift dramatically in the coming decades in 2075.
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The research provides a historical and predictive overview of the world’s top economies at several milestones: 1980, 2000, 2022, 2050, and 2075 – all figures representing real GDP projections based on 2021 USD.
Highlights for 2050
Over the past few decades, there’s been a remarkable economic growth in China and India. Notably, from 2000 to 2022, India ascended eight positions to claim the title of the world's fifth-largest economy, overtaking both the United Kingdom and France.
Looking ahead to 2050, the Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research anticipates a further shift in the global GDP landscape, with Asia playing an even more substantial role.
This shift is attributed not only to Asia exceeding previous economic projections but also to underperformance by BRICS nations.
According to Goldman Sachs’s forecast for 2050, Indonesia will emerge as the fourth-largest economy, surpassing Brazil and Russia to become the largest emerging market. As the world's largest archipelagic state, Indonesia currently boasts the fourth-largest population - 277 million.
So, in the midst of this century, China, the U.S., and India will share the first, second, and third spots, respectively, while Indonesia and Germany will follow on the fourth and fifth positions.
Africa will be represented by Egypt and Nigeria in the Top15/Year2050.
Highlights for 2075
Things will be different in the world within the next 25 years after 2050. The report reveals that Nigeria, Pakistan, and Egypt will break into the top 10.
A pivotal factor influencing these projections is the rapid expansion of populations, paving the way for substantial labor forces in all three nations. Concurrently, European economies are anticipated to experience a further decline in their global standings, with Germany, once the world's third-largest economy, projected to occupy the ninth position, trailing behind Brazil, while France expected to drop to the bottom in the list of 15.
Additionally, Goldman Sachs foresees that China, India, and the U.S. will boast comparable GDPs at that time, indicating a degree of economic parity among them. Consequently, the manner in which these nations will interact with each other is likely to mold the global landscape in ways that carry profound implications.
In spite of having a larger market size, both China and India will still be twice as poor as the American economy. Richer countries will continue to enjoy higher equity market capitalization ratios and more valuable businesses, as well as better welfare, the report says.
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