Europe will be hit the worst.

A new study published in Nature Communications raises alarm over a possible collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), a central component of the Atlantic Ocean’s circulation system. That collapse — if triggered — could destabilize Europe’s climate, intensifying extreme weather, heatwaves, flooding, and cold spells across the continent.

What the AMOC does and why It matters

The AMOC acts like a giant conveyor belt: warm surface waters travel northwards, cool, sink, and then flow back southward at deeper levels. This circulation system helps moderate Europe’s climate, delivering milder winters than would otherwise be expected at high latitudes.

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Scientists have long studied the AMOC’s sensitivity to climate change, but until now, most climate models have judged a full collapse unlikely within this century. However, the new study sharply raises the stakes.

New evidence suggests collapse could arrive mid-century

The investigation, led by Peter and Susanne Ditlevsen of the University of Coppenhagen, Denmark, builds on observed changes in sea surface temperatures (SST) in the subpolar Atlantic and statistical early warning signals (such as increasing variance and autocorrelation) indicative of a system losing stability.

Using a data-driven estimation framework, the authors infer that the AMOC tipping point (i.e., its collapse) may occur around 2057, with a 95 % confidence interval spanning 2037 to 2109.

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This conclusion runs counter to previous assessments from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and standard Earth system models, which generally considered a full shutdown during the 21st century to be unlikely.

The authors are cautious, noting that their method makes only minimal assumptions and that real-world dynamics and uncertainties could alter the forecast. Nevertheless, they argue that the strength of the early-warning signals in observational records merits serious attention.

Climate impacts across Europe could be severe

A collapse of the AMOC is not a small perturbation — it would represent a fundamental shift in Atlantic circulation with cascading impacts:

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More extreme temperature swings: Regions in Europe could see sharper contrasts between heat and cold seasons, as the moderating influence of ocean circulation weakens.

Increased risk of droughts and floods: The rearrangement of sea-surface temperature gradients may distort atmospheric circulation patterns (e.g. the jet stream), leading to abnormal storm tracks and precipitation regimes.

Possible feedbacks to hurricane patterns: Disruptions in the Atlantic could alter the origin and path of tropical storms, potentially reaching further north or east than currently typical.

“Surprises” in climate behavior: The collapse could precipitate unexpected shifts in weather extremes, beyond what current models anticipate.

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Climate expert Robert Marsh told The Conversation that even a partial collapse of AMOC could amplify already volatile conditions in Europe.

Scientific disagreements

Not all scientists agree that a collapse is imminent, according to the same outlet. Some argue that uncertainties in modeling, incomplete understanding of deep ocean processes, and natural variability may buffer the system against abrupt tipping.

Moreover, the AMOC is only one facet of the broader Gulf Stream and Atlantic circulation — wind-driven components may persist even in a weakened or collapsed AMOC state.

Still, the study stands out by quantifying the tipping time (with confidence bounds) and by treating the observed early-warning signals rigorously. The authors conclude that the evidence “should not be ignored” by policymakers and climate planners.

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They urge governments to cooperate on enhanced monitoring of ocean circulation and temperature patterns, especially in the North Atlantic, and call for more climate model experiments that incorporate ramped forcing, realistic ocean dynamics, and sensitivity testing.

The resulting early-warning signal analyses should be integrated into climate risk assessment and adaptation frameworks, the Ditlevsens propose.

If the AMOC does collapse, Europe could face a new era of climate instability — though exactly how that plays out remains uncertain. What is sure though, as per the new study, is that the window for proactive climate mitigation and adaptation may be narrower than previously thought.