Could Ukraine be Russia’s second Afghanistan?

By now, even Moscow’s own statistics tell the story: Russia’s military industry is exhausting itself. The numbers, uncovered in a new investigation by Novaya Europe, show hiring in defense plants plunging, wages falling, and factories running at full tilt with no room to expand. For the first time since the invasion of Ukraine, the defense sector is shrinking while the war rages on.

This is not just a dip in the charts. It’s the unmistakable sound of a war machine grinding toward collapse.

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In 2022, Russia’s defense factories couldn’t hire fast enough. Vacancies soared, and wages climbed as the state poured billions into tank production and armored vehicles. Fast forward to 2025, job postings have dropped by a third, salaries are down by 10%, and many plants no longer build new machines at all.

Instead, they patch up rusting Soviet armor.

Less tanks, more drones

The reason is clear: Russia has hit the ceiling of what its defense industry can deliver. Production lines are maxed out, skilled workers are scarce, and sanctions choke off access to the tools and parts needed to expand. New factories would take years and billions to build — resources the Kremlin doesn’t have.

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So, Moscow is shifting its bets. Tanks and fighter jets, once symbols of Russian might, are giving way to drones and rockets. They’re cheaper, easier to produce, and tactically effective — but they cannot replace the heavy armor and air power needed for decisive breakthroughs. What looks like adaptation is in fact retreat.

Killing its own economy

History offers a chilling parallel. The Soviet Union in the 1980s bled itself dry in Afghanistan. A decade of war devoured resources, sapped morale, and exposed the brittleness of a command economy. The conflict did not singlehandedly topple the USSR, but it helped push a weakened system past the point of no return.

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Ukraine could be Russia’s Afghanistan. The Kremlin is already overspending, with military costs projected to hit 31.5 trillion rubles by 2027. Factories are tapped out, the workforce is shrinking, and the state is burning cash on drones while its tank parks rust. The economy may look stable on the surface, but beneath lies the same rot that doomed the Soviet Union.

The question now is not whether Russia can keep the war going — it can, for a time – but it can survive the bill. Can the Federation absorb the industrial collapse that looms as its heavy industry withers? Or will Ukraine, like Afghanistan before it, prove to be the war that not only drains an army but dismantles an empire?